0x7d5d15335ec60449995971a563fd94e060f091d8
0x7d5d15335ec60449995971a563fd94e060f091d8
- Realised P&L
- $75.8k
- Volume
- $6.96M
- Markets traded
- 216
- Open portfolio
- $81.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded216
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.945 | 0.965 | $81.0k | +$1.7k |
| LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner · LYON | 0.690 | 0.695 | $347.50 | +$2.50 |
| LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs · LYON | 0.790 | 0.825 | $19.64 | +$0.83 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winner · Hanwha Life Esports | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$295.43 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card) · Dan Hooker | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.97 |
| LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner · Natus Vincere | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.94 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winner · Hanwha Life Esports | 0.644 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$231.80 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs · LYON | 0.295 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.30 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner · Top Esports | 0.509 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$255.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.7kat 0.910Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$4.4kat 0.973US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
- +$4.3kat 0.760Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$3.8kat 0.969US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.825Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 05:50 | LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.69 | $345.00 |
| 09-25 21:59 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs | SELL | 0.7 | $242.00 |
| 09-25 19:18 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs | BUY | 0.79 | $395.00 |
| 09-25 19:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $962.96 |
| 09-05 20:00 | UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.21 | $60.97 |
| 08-28 04:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $4.80 |
| 08-27 04:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.20 |
| 08-24 06:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $16.34 |
| 08-24 06:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.991 | $175.41 |
| 08-24 06:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.991 | $386.49 |
| 08-24 06:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.991 | $535.14 |
| 08-24 06:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.991 | $588.65 |
| 08-24 06:21 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $637.56 |
| 08-24 06:21 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $7.6k |
| 08-20 19:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $43.29 |