FANTOMAS.
0x7d17982260fa743d9d32f720eea1c9d5898e9df1
- Realised P&L
- $10.0k
- Volume
- $768.9k
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $17.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.153 | $10.8k | +$6.1k |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.201 | $4.9k | +$797.89 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.718 | 0.745 | $1.1k | +$39.21 |
| Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $95.66 | −$246.75 |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.071 | $35.75 | +$16.25 |
| French election called by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.072 | $35.36 | −$4.64 |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.196Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.256Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$1.4kat 0.803Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
- +$567.18at 0.616Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
- +$215.11at 0.777Paris curfew by October 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 01:15 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2198223385 | $195.00 |
| 10-31 01:14 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.195299 | $195.30 |
| 10-31 01:05 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2099999996 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 01:04 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1989646411 | $588.00 |
| 10-31 01:03 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.196 | $588.00 |
| 10-30 23:36 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.198 | $295.00 |
| 10-30 23:34 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1979999997 | $85.00 |
| 10-30 22:33 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.183 | $183.00 |
| 10-30 22:31 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.17921066 | $268.82 |
| 10-30 21:41 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1819999999 | $215.00 |
| 10-30 21:39 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.172 | $137.60 |
| 10-30 21:38 | Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1819181367 | $200.00 |
| 10-30 21:37 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 16:20 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $5.00 |
| 10-29 16:20 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.039 | $19.50 |