pollopollu
0x7c833fe781ef10059ca66f377df07352e45bd800
- Realised P&L
- $37.37
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $56.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.68at 0.278Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$24.13at 0.061US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$23.60at 0.490Heat vs. Rockets
- +$8.43at 0.183Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
- +$7.90at 0.247Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 09:25 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.943 | $0.05 |
| 09-20 20:25 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $0.01 |
| 09-20 16:20 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.01 |
| 09-20 13:52 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $0.01 |
| 09-19 09:00 | Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.35 |
| 09-17 19:35 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $0.02 |
| 09-17 07:24 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $0.06 |
| 09-16 08:36 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $0.01 |
| 09-15 19:28 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $0.07 |
| 09-15 11:58 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $0.01 |
| 09-12 21:41 | Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.38 |
| 09-11 13:34 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 09-09 06:01 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $0.01 |
| 09-08 21:29 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.23 |
| 09-08 06:24 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.0081371076 | $0.61 |