bb5698
0x7c5f75ddfeeb0595a9606c5c811dbc786ee882e7
- Realised P&L
- $-320.80
- Volume
- $32.2k
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $234.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.825 | $165.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.415 | $62.25 | −$23.25 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.035 | $7.10 | +$2.30 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$38.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.00at 0.810Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
- +$10.20at 0.490Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?
- +$9.00at 0.880Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
- +$6.30at 0.740US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$5.00at 0.350Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-06 05:20 | Will France win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.123 | $24.60 |
| 04-06 05:17 | Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | BUY | 0.73 | $21.55 |
| 04-06 05:13 | Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $68.00 |
| 04-06 05:11 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.378 | $115.65 |
| 04-06 05:08 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $16.00 |
| 04-06 05:07 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.74 | $155.40 |
| 03-19 11:46 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $11.99 |
| 03-16 01:25 | Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.27 | $8.10 |
| 03-16 01:25 | Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.88 | $8.80 |
| 02-24 12:57 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.0062190267 | $13.99 |
| 02-24 12:47 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.986 | $9.86 |
| 02-24 12:44 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.75 |
| 02-24 12:44 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.007 | $14.00 |
| 02-23 14:59 | Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.26 | $7.80 |
| 12-02 04:09 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $16.00 |