0x7c2763161E569e34432C2eEFF1A73d306FAe6e68-1770366654818
0x7c2763161e569e34432c2eeff1a73d306fae6e68
- Realised P&L
- $-175.61
- Volume
- $9.6k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $67.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.90at 0.255Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$84.65at 0.377Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
- +$72.87at 0.419Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
- +$49.70at 0.287Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$22.26at 0.310US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 13:02 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $13.42 |
| 08-11 19:10 | Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.163999992 | $14.07 |
| 08-11 19:09 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0217237821 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 19:05 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $25.00 |
| 08-11 18:58 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999935 | $25.00 |
| 08-11 18:58 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999993 | $11.00 |
| 08-11 18:54 | Grok 4.6 released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.0735753964 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 18:54 | Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2459123224 | $40.00 |
| 08-11 18:54 | Grok 4.6 released by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 08-11 18:53 | Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 08-11 18:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.036 | $9.73 |
| 08-11 18:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0369999965 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 18:46 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 18:45 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.0317612754 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 18:33 | Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.3357204006 | $40.00 |