0xphilo
0x7be65adde3857af7d9de2aa5a976bf893fd826a6
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $14.0k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.930 | $2.0k | +$881.10 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.982 | $1.4k | +$72.64 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.594 | 0.947 | $662.55 | +$246.55 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.347 | 0.547 | $27.35 | +$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$320.00at 0.770Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- +$283.03at 0.355StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$94.05at 0.750AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan
- +$7.97at 0.185Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
- +$2.61at 0.830Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 18:59 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $560.39 |
| 05-19 18:58 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $243.00 |
| 05-19 18:58 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $162.00 |
| 05-19 18:48 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9339999998 | $690.00 |
| 05-19 18:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.7612004989 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 18:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | SELL | 0.34 | $19.44 |
| 05-19 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 05-04 18:13 | StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 05-04 18:13 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $549.22 |
| 04-23 12:03 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.933 | $23.60 |
| 04-01 17:15 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3901188741 | $200.00 |
| 01-24 13:24 | AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | BUY | 0.75 | $82.61 |
| 01-24 13:18 | AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | BUY | 0.7504445887 | $200.00 |
| 11-08 13:59 | Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7799998544 | $3.00 |