0x7baFcbc9247f98f19d2b5432ad654122bF451eDa-1778930962888
0x7bafcbc9247f98f19d2b5432ad654122bf451eda
- Realised P&L
- $114.19
- Volume
- $10.6k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.56at 0.720Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?
- +$24.03at 0.400Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
- +$16.00at 0.140Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- +$9.00at 0.040Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- +$6.85at 0.597Thunder vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $84.60 |
| 09-17 15:56 | Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.902 | $45.09 |
| 09-14 21:38 | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $26.70 |
| 09-14 21:38 | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.01 |
| 09-14 21:38 | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $8.69 |
| 09-14 21:37 | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 09-14 21:37 | Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $19.83 |
| 09-14 07:54 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $314.10 |
| 09-05 09:52 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $95.70 |
| 09-04 20:54 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $164.00 |
| 09-04 20:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.18 | $72.00 |
| 09-04 17:35 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $67.59 |
| 09-02 09:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.39 | $58.50 |
| 09-01 05:54 | Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $31.45 |
| 08-30 19:38 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $107.44 |