The-one-26876
0x7b86c66fd22d886ee9ec718460cf8f64b34d3a4b
- Realised P&L
- $219.45
- Volume
- $20.3k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $43.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$119.32at 0.016Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
- +$82.33at 0.012Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$78.33at 0.060US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$65.82at 0.029Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$60.00at 0.250US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 03:58 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 03:58 | Will Iran target Kuwait by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.329999967 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 03:52 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0607892635 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 03:51 | Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0809999968 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 03:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.069999999 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 03:49 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 03:49 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.008 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 03:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.0899999969 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 03:43 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 03:41 | Israel military action against Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.1129999939 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 03:30 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.0444664029 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 03:59 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0238983002 | $1.64 |
| 09-12 03:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0379999998 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 03:53 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 05:19 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.4799999827 | $10.00 |