wg233
0x7b699c06d85f849b16e0fa1feb9448f3d53442cf
- Realised P&L
- $-4.2k
- Volume
- $162.6k
- Markets traded
- 364
- Open portfolio
- $4.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded364
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$859.99at 0.656Rockets vs. Lakers
- +$781.00at 0.290Seahawks vs. 49ers
- +$764.70at 0.430Royals vs. Red Sox
- +$588.00at 0.800Cowboys vs. Commanders
- +$533.28at 0.262Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 05:43 | Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? | SELL | 0.9276375 | $222.63 |
| 07-08 04:40 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | SELL | 0.8036433333 | $120.55 |
| 06-14 15:00 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? | SELL | 0.4759 | $95.18 |
| 04-10 04:45 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.936 | $37.18 |
| 04-09 18:48 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $11.50 |
| 04-02 15:19 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? | SELL | 0.828797654 | $14.13 |
| 04-02 15:11 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 04-02 15:10 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70% by June 30? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.62 |
| 04-02 15:10 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? | SELL | 0.43 | $17.20 |
| 04-02 15:10 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 03-25 11:39 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | SELL | 0.962 | $19.24 |
| 03-25 11:39 | Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? | SELL | 0.2105893333 | $3.16 |
| 03-25 11:38 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | SELL | 0.17 | $4.70 |
| 03-25 11:36 | Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30? | SELL | 0.85789 | $34.32 |
| 03-25 11:36 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5381899396 | $133.74 |