nofear763
0x7af9ea44e02130f69fa136f4ae7e6df5ad59d415
- Realised P&L
- $161.42
- Volume
- $39.8k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $290.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.244 | 0.190 | $95.00 | −$27.00 |
| Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? · No | 0.215 | 0.165 | $83.10 | −$24.99 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? · No | 0.802 | 0.915 | $71.72 | +$8.83 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.006 | $34.65 | −$108.10 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.002 | $5.46 | −$52.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.78at 0.355US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$82.14at 0.281Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$49.41at 0.400Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$48.86at 0.030US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$32.28at 0.750No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 22:09 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | SELL | 0.2 | $8.00 |
| 07-01 23:35 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.2072697778 | $93.27 |
| 07-01 13:03 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.023 | $3.45 |
| 07-01 13:03 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0170060606 | $2.81 |
| 07-01 10:32 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.019 | $6.65 |
| 07-01 10:12 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.019 | $19.00 |
| 06-30 22:35 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0201377143 | $70.48 |
| 06-29 23:59 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.033 | $0.02 |
| 06-29 23:57 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0326703816 | $0.97 |
| 06-29 23:56 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.033 | $1.32 |
| 06-29 23:53 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0308368201 | $1.84 |
| 06-29 23:51 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.033 | $1.29 |
| 06-29 23:40 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.026 | $0.51 |
| 06-29 22:13 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.015 | $0.16 |
| 06-28 01:20 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.033 | $49.50 |