PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

KeithStarmer

0x7ae8b850049d07152b1741fbde10c7b6c0a45a42

Realised P&L
$3.8k
Volume
$238.3k
Markets traded
707
Open portfolio
$7.2k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded707
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8440.825$1.6k−$38.00
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.9230.945$945.00+$22.00
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No0.7770.735$551.25−$31.25
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.4310.439$501.14+$8.49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7020.645$483.75−$42.75
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.8700.935$471.29+$32.72
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.8400.700$349.99−$70.00
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? · No0.6900.695$347.50+$2.50
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · No0.6000.435$261.00−$99.00
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · No0.8180.745$223.50−$21.90
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · No0.8600.925$203.50+$14.30
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6350.705$176.25+$17.50
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.7000.695$173.75−$1.25
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? · No0.6400.649$162.36+$2.37
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028? · No0.5500.705$141.00+$31.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 01:20U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.05$5.00
10-31 23:52Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.52$52.00
10-31 23:11Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?SELL0.73$218.99
10-30 15:01Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 30?BUY0.08$3.20
10-30 11:37Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?BUY0.016$0.95
10-29 22:57Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.012$2.40
10-29 22:56Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.031$6.20
10-29 22:54Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.019$4.94
10-29 22:01Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.012$1.20
10-29 12:21Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.041$4.10
10-29 12:21Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.012$1.20
10-29 11:34Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.007$7.00
10-29 11:21Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.041$4.10
10-29 11:21Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.012$1.20
10-26 19:21Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.009$0.72