Draftking
0x7adfd7f206cc68b7736a85d02ec4e3d827547fdf
- Realised P&L
- $65.18
- Volume
- $222.7k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $94.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.849 | 0.869 | $59.41 | +$1.34 |
| Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass? · No | 0.683 | 1.000 | $26.84 | +$8.49 |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.115 | $7.87 | +$0.34 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.24 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates · No | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.28 |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? · No | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$57.78at 0.037Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$36.22at 0.493Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$35.84at 0.440Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$9.02at 0.902No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
- +$7.56at 0.820Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-18 18:57 | Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.51 |
| 04-18 18:57 | Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass? | BUY | 0.85 | $22.67 |
| 04-18 18:55 | Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.8488973684 | $58.06 |
| 04-18 18:54 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $7.53 |
| 02-24 09:40 | Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates | BUY | 0.09 | $8.28 |
| 02-24 09:40 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.902 | $82.98 |
| 02-24 03:07 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $75.24 |
| 01-03 21:06 | Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $34.44 |
| 01-03 20:28 | Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.11 |
| 01-03 20:27 | Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.11 |
| 01-03 20:24 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.44 | $6.16 |
| 01-03 20:24 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 03-31 16:10 | Is Earth flat? | BUY | 0.9699999889 | $63.60 |
| 03-31 16:09 | Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | SELL | 0.9811542734 | $63.60 |
| 01-23 13:17 | Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | BUY | 0.9739999998 | $63.14 |