0x7a6c46965b59f485ffe1fab6b1f359b2aadf5048
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $57.1k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $12.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.879 | 0.935 | $5.3k | +$313.29 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.703 | 0.705 | $1.9k | +$5.27 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.847 | 0.455 | $1.8k | −$1.6k |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? · No | 0.896 | 0.949 | $1.8k | +$98.13 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.962 | $1.1k | +$105.17 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.769 | 0.790 | $424.77 | +$11.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$329.29at 0.680Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$294.54at 0.670Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
- +$262.33at 0.799Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
- +$251.47at 0.779France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
- +$177.80at 0.606MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 21:36 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7689999674 | $4.65 |
| 07-30 21:34 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7689999995 | $17.82 |
| 07-30 21:34 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7689999982 | $75.01 |
| 07-30 21:33 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7689999999 | $315.74 |
| 07-30 21:31 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.6760828962 | $427.85 |
| 07-27 08:13 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7789997391 | $2.55 |
| 07-27 08:13 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.778999944 | $10.64 |
| 07-27 08:12 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.778999991 | $44.40 |
| 07-27 08:12 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7798618915 | $185.27 |
| 07-27 08:11 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.779499482 | $250.49 |
| 07-20 01:39 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $2.0k |
| 07-12 06:59 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7030301053 | $1.9k |
| 07-06 00:55 | Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8883088621 | $538.93 |
| 07-01 11:31 | Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.8399999999 | $456.45 |
| 07-01 11:24 | Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7899999999 | $466.23 |