0x7A301EB273227d4054582436aB348Bb519ECa46E-1761637475530
0x7a301eb273227d4054582436ab348bb519eca46e
- Realised P&L
- $-788.20
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $0.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.005 | $0.55 | −$1.15 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.017 | $0.33 | −$0.25 |
| Rockets vs. Bulls · Rockets | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$223.30 |
| Hawks vs. Knicks · Hawks | 0.436 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.60 |
| Celtics vs. Hawks · Celtics | 0.526 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$133.23 |
| Bucks vs. Jazz · Bucks | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$183.60 |
| Heat vs. Pacers · Heat | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| 76ers vs. Hawks · 76ers | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.50 |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic · Cavaliers | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
| Jazz vs. Pelicans · Jazz | 0.351 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$191.49 |
| Knicks vs. Rockets · Knicks | 0.531 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.09 |
| Mavericks vs. Suns · Mavericks | 0.356 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$308.38 |
| Timberwolves vs. 76ers · Timberwolves | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$108.19 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets · Trail Blazers | 0.388 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$117.58 |
| Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$226.69at 0.452Pacers vs. Bulls
- +$141.90at 0.450Pistons vs. Timberwolves
- +$131.10at 0.430Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves
- +$123.00at 0.590Lakers vs. Magic
- +$90.00at 0.700Hornets vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 05:58 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.017 | $1.70 |
| 08-25 09:20 | Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 07-25 07:17 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.97 |
| 07-23 09:08 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.37 |
| 07-23 09:08 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 06-22 08:35 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.95 |
| 06-22 08:35 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $18.20 |
| 06-22 08:05 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $19.68 |
| 05-28 07:43 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $15.90 |
| 05-26 04:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 05-25 04:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.54 | $54.00 |
| 05-15 07:48 | Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL | 0.995 | $121.39 |
| 05-15 07:44 | Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.999 | $121.88 |
| 04-18 10:59 | Hawks vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.33 | $145.70 |
| 04-08 09:17 | Mavericks vs. Suns | BUY | 0.18 | $151.98 |