Kyrela
0x7a134a59833a242f6baac35c583ce4ef5a69e052
- Realised P&L
- $4.40
- Volume
- $259.69
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $6.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.699 | 0.823 | $5.88 | +$0.88 |
| Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.084 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? · No | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.89at 0.296Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
- +$2.26at 0.470Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- +$-0.19at 0.530Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$-0.88at 0.180Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$-1.04at 0.021Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 14:43 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.6989999827 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 15:05 | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 17:09 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $4.81 |
| 03-14 17:09 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.101 | $1.12 |
| 03-06 14:26 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.36 |
| 01-16 00:46 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | BUY | 0.4699998919 | $2.00 |
| 01-09 23:59 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.179999928 | $2.00 |
| 01-06 22:48 | Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 12-16 21:38 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 11-18 14:21 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025? | BUY | 0.025999975 | $1.00 |
| 11-18 14:21 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 11-18 14:21 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 11-18 14:21 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? | BUY | 0.0891088315 | $1.00 |
| 11-16 15:39 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 11-16 15:33 | Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |