Machiavellian

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

✓ ClearEdge per dollar5.6%

Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.

✓ ClearMarkets traded206

Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.

▲ CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position

Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.

✓ ClearSettled sample50 positions

Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.

? Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%

Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.

▲ CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position

Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.