robert8888
0x7946ffdb6799dd706179a834d4dde14fce2d910a
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $566.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.071 | $184.28 | −$615.72 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.181 | 0.207 | $114.64 | +$14.64 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.128 | $112.83 | +$12.83 |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.555 | $84.09 | −$15.91 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.117 | $69.94 | −$30.06 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? · Yes | 0.398 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$223.45at 0.573Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$25.68at 0.280US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$21.69at 0.697Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$12.22at 0.290Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.55at 0.440Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-31 14:05 | EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3366092181 | $30.00 |
| 03-31 14:03 | EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2918807604 | $40.54 |
| 03-31 14:00 | EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 03-25 16:39 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.112999999 | $100.00 |
| 03-25 16:39 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1679999987 | $100.00 |
| 03-25 16:38 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1809999988 | $100.00 |
| 03-12 18:21 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.5799999942 | $30.00 |
| 03-12 18:20 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? | BUY | 0.6390003572 | $30.00 |
| 03-12 18:19 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.2190023965 | $20.00 |
| 03-12 18:18 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | BUY | 0.3699999887 | $20.00 |
| 03-05 14:01 | Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.08 | $27.57 |
| 03-05 03:00 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? | BUY | 0.3983770121 | $100.00 |
| 03-04 16:44 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | SELL | 0.501 | $299.16 |
| 03-04 16:41 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | BUY | 0.5019999998 | $300.00 |
| 03-04 12:42 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? | BUY | 0.697489038 | $50.00 |