XVFlow
0x78ad03d27582cd1b5255d364ff8f093b6cf745cc
- Realised P&L
- $-381.0k
- Volume
- $24.85M
- Markets traded
- 1,241
- Open portfolio
- $6.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,241
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.095 | $6.6k | −$13.7k |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.002 | $180.00 | −$3.2k |
| Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5 · Under | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.5k |
| Spread: Lakers (-10.5) · Pacers | 0.595 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| AC Milan vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner · GenOne | 0.365 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? · No | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$901.96 |
| Spread: Bucks (-11.5) · Jazz | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$313.07 |
| RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Spread: 76ers (-4.5) · Grizzlies | 0.902 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$77.29 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? · No | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.1k |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance · Netherlands | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.9k |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.2kat 0.500Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$75.3kat 0.926Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13?
- +$68.0kat 0.772Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1?
- +$66.9kat 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12?
- +$39.2kat 0.380Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 03:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.3k |
| 07-29 03:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.9988989369 | $17.1k |
| 07-29 03:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.3k |
| 07-25 16:05 | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.2k |
| 07-25 16:05 | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.9988680521 | $54.5k |
| 07-25 16:05 | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.9k |
| 07-25 16:04 | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.9959603601 | $6.5k |
| 07-10 11:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on July 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.2k |
| 07-10 11:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 07-10 11:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 12? | BUY | 0.9988452454 | $45.5k |
| 07-10 11:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 07-04 02:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.4k |
| 07-04 02:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 6? | BUY | 0.9987631142 | $2.9k |
| 07-04 02:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.99 |
| 07-04 02:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.7k |