OptimusTipp
0x781c57df3539d6c1b87b7a7a9059052263854fd1
- Realised P&L
- $19.58
- Volume
- $244.07
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $42.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berlin State Election: More Votes to Grüne or SPD? · Grüne | 0.830 | 0.870 | $20.96 | +$0.96 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · No | 0.440 | 0.979 | $11.12 | +$6.12 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.285 | $7.92 | +$2.92 |
| Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.355 | $2.54 | +$0.54 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.12at 0.584Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?
- +$2.73at 0.110Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
- +$1.23at 0.800Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
- +$0.65at 0.669Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
- +$0.49at 0.110Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 20:27 | Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 20:26 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 20:26 | Berlin State Election: More Votes to Grüne or SPD? | BUY | 0.8299999975 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 20:12 | Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | SELL | 0.72 | $10.91 |
| 08-16 15:55 | Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 09:17 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.55 |
| 04-19 20:22 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.00 |
| 04-12 08:53 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 04-04 16:33 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | SELL | 0.996 | $6.22 |
| 03-29 19:41 | Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | SELL | 0.17 | $7.73 |
| 03-27 11:20 | Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 03-27 11:19 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 21:33 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 21:04 | Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April? | BUY | 0.5841583939 | $10.00 |