botnot
0x78162a0f2925b450a85f5a3e46418f9cbfd6ce35
- Realised P&L
- $-15.9k
- Volume
- $401.7k
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $661.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.018 | $661.87 | −$196.25 |
| Ravens vs. Chiefs · Ravens | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.192 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Patriots vs. Dolphins · Dolphins | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Commanders vs. Falcons · Commanders | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Seahawks vs. Jaguars · Jaguars | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Seahawks vs. Steelers · Steelers | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| 49ers vs. Rams · Rams | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will anyone say "Predict" or "Prediction" 10+ times during South Park's prediction market episode? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$467.37 |
| Buccaneers vs. Texans · Texans | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Giants vs. Saints · Giants | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Falcons vs. Panthers · Falcons | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.343Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
- +$1.6kat 0.166Packers vs. Browns
- +$1.5kat 0.650Vikings vs. Browns
- +$916.45at 0.372Dolphins vs. Panthers
- +$800.00at 0.200Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 02:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? | BUY | 0.2199999967 | $40.00 |
| 05-01 02:22 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.035 | $35.00 |
| 04-27 03:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0529999995 | $86.36 |
| 04-27 03:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0649999962 | $12.98 |
| 04-27 02:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0749999967 | $17.34 |
| 04-27 02:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0724113688 | $4.38 |
| 04-27 02:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.066 | $17.31 |
| 04-27 02:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0659999941 | $8.66 |
| 04-27 02:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0789573596 | $17.35 |
| 04-27 02:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0859999975 | $26.05 |
| 04-27 02:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0879999976 | $26.06 |
| 04-27 02:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0879999976 | $26.06 |
| 04-27 02:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0879999976 | $26.06 |
| 04-27 02:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0875906015 | $26.06 |
| 04-27 02:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.0869999982 | $34.74 |