0x780A08325873dAe090B7da0B8FDe988A8CF4c0c7-1764704331846
0x780a08325873dae090b7da0b8fde988a8cf4c0c7
- Realised P&L
- $86.99
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $211.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.815 | $162.68 | +$132.68 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.161 | $17.71 | +$7.71 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.123 | $15.25 | −$4.75 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.017 | $8.25 | −$41.75 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.255 | 0.154 | $6.06 | −$3.94 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.028 | $1.62 | −$13.38 |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.84at 0.182Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?
- +$76.67at 0.343US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$40.61at 0.330Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$20.42at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$16.67at 0.750Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 11:16 | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | BUY | 0.0925925926 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 11:12 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY | 0.3699999771 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 11:12 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 04-11 17:28 | Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.1351873087 | $5.00 |
| 04-11 17:27 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1619999934 | $20.00 |
| 04-11 17:26 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $50.00 |
| 04-11 17:25 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.75 | $50.00 |
| 03-19 16:18 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 03-04 18:00 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.1399999956 | $25.00 |
| 03-04 18:00 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 03-02 15:25 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0906483672 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 15:25 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2549999828 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 15:21 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 15:20 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0368992984 | $10.00 |
| 02-07 15:56 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.2259993329 | $20.00 |