0x77D5477f92120E20014053Bbe436b20b6713dF8f-1724786967560
0x77d5477f92120e20014053bbe436b20b6713df8f
- Realised P&L
- $5.14
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $8.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declares a national emergency by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.880 | $5.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.540 | $3.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.312 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| No airdrop in 2025? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.22 |
| Fed rate cut by September 18? · No | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.78 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? · No | 0.146 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.26 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.51at 0.547Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$13.65at 0.475Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?
- +$10.26at 0.585Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$10.20at 0.495Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$9.47at 0.425Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 11:00 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 09:12 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $3.00 |
| 10-29 09:09 | Trump declares a national emergency by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 20:58 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $11.15 |
| 08-16 11:52 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.3899999774 | $5.00 |
| 08-13 00:34 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 08-13 00:33 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.66 | $55.66 |
| 07-29 07:27 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 09:32 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 09:32 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.495049505 | $10.00 |
| 07-08 09:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $11.69 |
| 06-22 22:36 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6099999667 | $15.00 |
| 06-19 19:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.9 | $14.63 |
| 06-18 10:45 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5599999895 | $15.00 |
| 06-15 07:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.69 | $33.63 |