IceAdrian
0x76cdb781870dc761b50912fd299c40d8dbc288cc
- Realised P&L
- $5.28
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $21.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.960 | $10.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.213 | $5.25 | +$2.25 |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.745 | $3.73 | +$1.77 |
| Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? · No | 0.130 | 0.135 | $1.35 | +$0.05 |
| Will SV Elversberg be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $0.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.019 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
| Will OpenAI acquire Chrome before before August? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference? · No | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.03at 0.384Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
- +$11.02at 0.290Will Barcelona win La Liga?
- +$5.48at 0.267Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
- +$5.32at 0.429Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$2.66at 0.273Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 17:00 | Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 09-13 16:59 | Will SV Elversberg be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 16:57 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.95 |
| 02-14 11:01 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 02-14 10:55 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999827 | $10.00 |
| 02-14 10:51 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1219999689 | $3.00 |
| 08-11 15:04 | Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | BUY | 0.009 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 15:04 | Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 04-22 23:58 | Will OpenAI acquire Chrome before before August? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 04-20 19:52 | Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? | BUY | 0.0528216262 | $5.00 |
| 03-31 19:25 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 03-25 17:44 | Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | BUY | 0.3885700239 | $5.00 |
| 03-25 17:43 | Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 19:03 | Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | BUY | 0.2259998639 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 17:45 | Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | BUY | 0.3269998842 | $1.00 |