tvx
0x76873b801ede80e4a6c1c0e3d0ff06f2922d654b
- Realised P&L
- $-40.72
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $4.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.09at 0.220Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?
- +$6.33at 0.240Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
- +$5.93at 0.243Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
- +$3.64at 0.110Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$1.39at 0.113Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-02 20:34 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 20:34 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0219999787 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 18:55 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $3.00 |
| 02-23 22:05 | Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | BUY | 0.0030343488 | $1.00 |
| 02-23 22:04 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 02-23 22:00 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.0210000001 | $2.00 |
| 02-09 15:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $0.99 |
| 02-09 15:52 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999878 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 15:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 01-26 21:49 | Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 01-26 13:34 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.0439999794 | $2.00 |
| 01-21 19:13 | Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Australian Open? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 01-21 17:17 | Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? | BUY | 0.2307692024 | $5.00 |
| 01-21 17:14 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 01-21 17:12 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $2.39 |