0x765703586c945e11817ab0025a75e28a84d2c21a
0x765703586c945e11817ab0025a75e28a84d2c21a
- Realised P&L
- $5.99
- Volume
- $267.73
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $3.64
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.295 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.875 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.185 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.175 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$5.94at 0.258Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$3.41at 0.370US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 01:09 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:18 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:01 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 22:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:22 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:22 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7509999564 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:22 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 00:44 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.992 | $2.50 |
| 09-02 00:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 06:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 06:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-18 06:56 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 22:55 | Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 13:42 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 01:07 | Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |