peter0127
0x75dadfa3f0ac65df725d27b20e7de29e09e0edff
- Realised P&L
- $-161.86
- Volume
- $9.9k
- Markets traded
- 291
- Open portfolio
- $12.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded291
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $4.65 | −$0.15 |
| Will Hong Kong have 550mm or more of precipitation in September? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.025 | $2.55 | −$2.45 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.175 | $1.75 | −$0.45 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.092 | $1.38 | +$0.12 |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.175 | $0.88 | +$0.63 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.192 | 0.163 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.075 | $0.39 | −$0.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.78at 0.452Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
- +$74.74at 0.614Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
- +$69.71at 0.654Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
- +$61.58at 0.681Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
- +$61.32at 0.713Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 17:35 | Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.80 |
| 09-03 08:44 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 3? | SELL | 0.99 | $5.94 |
| 09-03 01:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 09-03 01:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 09-03 01:35 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 09-03 01:02 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.81 | $40.50 |
| 09-03 00:58 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $4.42 |
| 08-30 17:19 | Will Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 AI revenue be above $18B? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 08-30 17:15 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.084 | $1.26 |
| 08-30 17:15 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 08-30 16:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 08-30 16:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 08-30 16:36 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.11 | $5.50 |
| 08-20 05:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.20 |
| 07-19 17:45 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |