juliagrigor
0x75b4d9e50ea5b1614a69472bc1f3e7f9e99f3c45
- Realised P&L
- $-633.08
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $129.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-26.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.966 | 0.973 | $54.69 | +$0.39 |
| Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? · No | 0.940 | 0.925 | $41.91 | −$0.68 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.961 | 0.726 | $30.47 | −$9.89 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-12 House seat? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.964 | $2.57 | +$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.70at 0.963Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
- +$0.43at 0.986Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
- +$0.41at 0.986Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
- +$0.40at 0.952Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
- +$0.36at 0.967Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 12:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.37 |
| 09-17 12:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.42 |
| 08-21 14:09 | Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.08 |
| 07-23 12:01 | Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.89 |
| 07-23 12:01 | Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | SELL | 0.034 | $0.68 |
| 07-23 12:00 | Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? | BUY | 0.054 | $2.68 |
| 07-14 07:29 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.969 | $35.29 |
| 05-05 14:13 | Pacers vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.8099999998 | $635.00 |