0x7539d1e600d13cc091274376f7eb7ef54eca914d
0x7539d1e600d13cc091274376f7eb7ef54eca914d
- Realised P&L
- $-35.19
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $2.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · No | 0.505 | 0.532 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.240 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.90at 0.152Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance
- +$10.10at 0.164Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?
- +$4.67at 0.306Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5
- +$4.61at 0.308Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$3.30at 0.397Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 03:50 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.50499975 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:14 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 11:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 03:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:51 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:51 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 20:04 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 22:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:08 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:05 | Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.4069999101 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:04 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7529999548 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 06:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:56 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be less than 0.0%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 01:09 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.3009999217 | $1.00 |