0x7511ada977ab9e05a4708ac2f5336d124675cb36
0x7511ada977ab9e05a4708ac2f5336d124675cb36
- Realised P&L
- $-4.45
- Volume
- $138.72
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $12.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.790 | 0.986 | $3.42 | +$0.68 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.780 | $1.73 | +$0.73 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.510 | 0.820 | $1.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.941 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.930 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.235 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.735 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.335 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.67at 0.280Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.06at 0.711Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 19:11 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 07:07 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 22:45 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 12:25 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 03:56 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 14:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:09 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 21:55 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 13:17 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 03:56 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 19:32 | Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 11:22 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 03:22 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 19:22 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 07:16 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |