0x74FAa250CBab3a9597cF4B9F9d69bb9825797Ff1-1769792758500
0x74faa250cbab3a9597cf4b9f9d69bb9825797ff1
- Realised P&L
- $-18.3k
- Volume
- $154.1k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $22.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 1.000 | $10.0k | +$600.00 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.160 | $9.6k | −$10.8k |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.958 | 1.000 | $2.0k | +$84.00 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.750 | 1.000 | $500.00 | +$125.00 |
| Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.40 |
| Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.6k |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.26 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? · Yes | 0.345 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.9k |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$445.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? · Yes | 0.399 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.055Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1?
- +$2.9kat 0.025Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?
- +$75.00at 0.975Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$4.06at 0.970Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?
- +$-384.14at 0.090Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 26-1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-03 16:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? | BUY | 0.0066957614 | $15.91 |
| 02-03 16:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? | BUY | 0.416641156 | $2.1k |
| 02-02 01:48 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $139.73 |
| 02-01 15:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? | BUY | 0.1827333257 | $1.3k |
| 02-01 11:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? | BUY | 0.799 | $57.53 |
| 02-01 11:46 | Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | SELL | 0.3585222256 | $334.56 |
| 02-01 02:46 | Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.24996869 | $2.5k |
| 02-01 02:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? | BUY | 0.7092334661 | $366.76 |
| 02-01 02:23 | Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 26-1? | SELL | 0.0310145239 | $200.73 |
| 01-31 14:27 | Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 26-1? | BUY | 0.112 | $1.80 |
| 01-31 13:40 | Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 26-1? | BUY | 0.042 | $84.00 |
| 01-31 13:39 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? | BUY | 0.317 | $317.00 |
| 01-31 13:37 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1? | BUY | 0.055 | $209.35 |
| 01-31 13:36 | Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $1.7k |
| 01-31 12:53 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? | BUY | 0.02696983 | $53.94 |