0x742a92be6c9c95219a4a91dfaeb6ac014026fa07
- Realised P&L
- $168.92
- Volume
- $33.6k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $144.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.578 | 0.445 | $103.98 | −$30.98 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.581 | 0.400 | $23.76 | −$10.77 |
| USMCA extended in 2026? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.100 | $14.42 | −$9.04 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.105 | $2.26 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.16at 0.597Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$45.28at 0.020Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$44.07at 0.844Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
- +$21.25at 0.178Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
- +$20.09at 0.230Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 12:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4499999704 | $3.04 |
| 09-17 12:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4499999964 | $6.25 |
| 09-13 09:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7899999872 | $5.56 |
| 09-09 20:28 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5299999781 | $11.38 |
| 09-09 20:28 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5299999991 | $23.33 |
| 09-09 20:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $42.59 |
| 09-01 18:58 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5599999744 | $4.37 |
| 08-31 23:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August? | BUY | 0.925 | $4.22 |
| 08-31 23:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.559999987 | $8.64 |
| 08-31 23:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5599999962 | $17.68 |
| 08-26 14:41 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $11.14 |
| 08-25 20:04 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. NEC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.73 |
| 08-25 15:01 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 25? | SELL | 0.0323853551 | $6.47 |
| 08-25 07:12 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8399999912 | $42.09 |
| 08-25 07:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1506929539 | $14.28 |