PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x741b1f588E4f898F95E3460F42b23934ebD3A259-1780615805004

0x741b1f588e4f898f95e3460f42b23934ebd3a259

Realised P&L
$21.25
Volume
$11.3k
Markets traded
68
Open portfolio
$78.31

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded68
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample29 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? · Yes0.4200.565$45.26+$11.61
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No0.0570.020$26.00$47.60
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3500.295$4.42$0.82
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.1600.065$2.03$2.97
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes0.1500.015$0.60$5.40
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes0.6000.000$0.00$5.00
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$4.50
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.1720.000$0.00$9.20
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 · Over0.2900.000$0.00$5.00
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.2740.000$0.00$130.70
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3840.000$0.00$9.60
Will France win on 2026-07-04? · No0.1700.000$0.00$5.10
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? · No0.1200.000$0.00$5.04
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? · No0.4100.000$0.00$4.92
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$24.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-28 14:58Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.53$53.00
08-24 04:09Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?BUY0.42$33.64
08-22 13:57Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?SELL0.24$48.00
08-22 08:19Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.25$50.00
08-15 01:01Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.75$133.88
08-04 15:59Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-08-08?BUY0.52$10.40
08-01 13:56Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.41$102.50
08-01 13:56Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.32$100.16
07-31 09:13Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?BUY0.1$20.00
07-28 13:10Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.23$11.50
07-26 02:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.47$47.00
07-25 16:32Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-07-26?BUY0.52$10.40
07-25 16:30Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.28$19.60
07-18 08:27Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.402$10.05
07-17 14:55Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.409$10.22