0x73C7c75cdF2B911eC343D76aE7330ac6A146b175-1721616335613
0x73c7c75cdf2b911ec343d76ae7330ac6a146b175
- Realised P&L
- $13.9k
- Volume
- $711.4k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $75.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.3432024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$6.1kat 0.860Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep
- +$1.7kat 0.631Trump wins the election but loses WI, MI, or PA?
- +$1.5kat 0.502Patriots vs. Broncos
- +$1.2kat 0.915Trump wins every swing state?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-13 18:28 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | SELL | 0.83 | $82.98 |
| 02-13 18:28 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? | SELL | 0.8942471042 | $231.61 |
| 02-13 18:27 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.048 | $235.47 |
| 02-13 18:26 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.964 | $2.1k |
| 02-11 03:36 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9626574455 | $2.1k |
| 02-11 03:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999986 | $97.41 |
| 02-07 21:33 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.93 | $930.00 |
| 01-28 01:01 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.006 | $300.00 |
| 01-27 18:31 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? | BUY | 0.69 | $20.70 |
| 01-27 18:29 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 01-26 17:17 | U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | SELL | 0.709334 | $212.80 |
| 01-26 00:15 | Patriots vs. Broncos | SELL | 0.999 | $3.0k |
| 01-25 16:52 | Will the US strike Venezuela next? | BUY | 0.003 | $5.56 |
| 01-25 16:34 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $421.67 |
| 01-25 16:33 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83914 | $419.57 |