chivoexpiatorio
0x73bb531d8cfabcdd61f9e7bc08e8d2554bc69473
- Realised P&L
- $9.1k
- Volume
- $790.2k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $6.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.0kat 0.383Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$5.0kat 0.728Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
- +$4.6kat 0.673Biden drops out of presidential race?
- +$3.5kat 0.769First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
- +$3.3kat 0.779Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 18:17 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30? | BUY | 0.1945256651 | $124.30 |
| 09-23 18:09 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9660077333 | $2.3k |
| 09-22 21:53 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | BUY | 0.2100743663 | $491.16 |
| 09-22 21:50 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.2264645 | $226.46 |
| 09-22 21:48 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1850937572 | $714.57 |
| 09-21 20:43 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.3337840027 | $251.01 |
| 09-19 21:03 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.1697987928 | $168.78 |
| 09-19 21:02 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | BUY | 0.0482949982 | $88.46 |
| 09-19 20:57 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.185962963 | $75.32 |
| 09-19 20:56 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.324 | $243.65 |
| 09-19 20:54 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1708850575 | $74.34 |
| 09-19 20:24 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.9413019 | $188.26 |
| 09-18 21:20 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.57 | $114.00 |
| 09-18 21:13 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0961182 | $480.59 |
| 09-18 21:10 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1781055294 | $882.38 |