maxtrant
0x73b183a4567123b5f6d3b57a6c1edc97f0894a78
- Realised P&L
- $-986.10
- Volume
- $73.3k
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $349.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.765 | 0.905 | $118.32 | +$18.32 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.040 | $69.88 | −$160.11 |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.034 | $68.49 | −$131.51 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.044 | $44.50 | −$75.50 |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.029 | $36.52 | −$63.47 |
| Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.045 | $12.09 | −$7.91 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.57 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? · Yes | 0.717 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$213.35at 0.461Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards?
- +$205.37at 0.193Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$156.50at 0.482Nothing Ever Happens: January
- +$136.00at 0.320U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
- +$131.74at 0.072Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 20:34 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.4399999936 | $35.57 |
| 06-28 20:30 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999976 | $50.00 |
| 06-28 20:26 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.7648753301 | $100.00 |
| 06-28 20:24 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | BUY | 0.717481818 | $200.00 |
| 05-25 19:41 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.958 | $47.90 |
| 04-23 19:46 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.5717607401 | $25.96 |
| 04-05 17:38 | Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? | SELL | 0.64 | $2.92 |
| 04-04 16:26 | Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | BUY | 0.7750581307 | $251.97 |
| 04-04 16:26 | Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | BUY | 0.7693073245 | $200.00 |
| 04-04 00:14 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | BUY | 0.6492959035 | $100.00 |
| 04-04 00:11 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | BUY | 0.5923262599 | $22.33 |
| 04-04 00:10 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | BUY | 0.5880661638 | $44.44 |
| 03-29 22:28 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $52.00 |
| 03-21 02:38 | Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? | BUY | 0.641025641 | $50.00 |
| 03-09 23:15 | Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | SELL | 0.2902725815 | $5.43 |