0x73a42477b51a2678a985153a0663ba512b726e8c
- Realised P&L
- $49.18
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $24.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.959 | 0.972 | $22.72 | +$0.31 |
| Will Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.025 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.005 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.007 | $0.38 | −$0.63 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.004 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
| Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$83.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$129.31at 0.039Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$51.59at 0.020Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$11.42at 0.601Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-1.00at 0.024Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
- +$-1.04at 0.017Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 01:31 | Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $9.24 |
| 08-06 01:30 | Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999925 | $10.39 |
| 07-29 23:12 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0041621622 | $1.16 |
| 07-24 21:38 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7199999926 | $77.52 |
| 07-24 13:22 | Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31? | BUY | 0.190974874 | $83.30 |
| 07-24 13:21 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.022695883 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 17:09 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:08 | Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:56 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0174809091 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:55 | Will Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? | BUY | 0.0231147067 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:24 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:22 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.011999988 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:21 | Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 13:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |