0x73a42477b51a2678a985153a0663ba512b726e8c
- Realised P&L
- $57.96
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $32.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.959 | 0.955 | $22.32 | −$0.09 |
| Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.015 | $6.76 | −$76.54 |
| Will Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.026 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.016 | $0.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.010 | $0.63 | −$0.38 |
| Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.005 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.004 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.62at 0.037Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$30.15at 0.720Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$11.85at 0.586Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-1.00at 0.019Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$-1.00at 0.024Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 23:12 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0041621622 | $1.16 |
| 07-24 21:38 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7199999926 | $77.52 |
| 07-24 13:22 | Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31? | BUY | 0.190974874 | $83.30 |
| 07-24 13:21 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.022695883 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 17:09 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 17:08 | Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:56 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0174809091 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:55 | Will Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? | BUY | 0.0231147067 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:24 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:22 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.011999988 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 16:21 | Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 13:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 12:16 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.95 |
| 07-23 12:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.241 | $162.58 |