0x720cff4a1aca4e8a89d9f7b66136fe6686b67671
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $1.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.100 | $1.00 | −$0.60 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.009 | $0.09 | −$1.51 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.85 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.20 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.60 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.542 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.13at 0.502Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$12.00at 0.400Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
- +$8.24at 0.176Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?
- +$4.03at 0.590Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?
- +$4.03at 0.597Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 13:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.49 | $14.70 |
| 09-04 01:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.57 | $28.50 |
| 08-31 16:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 06-16 03:05 | Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.74 |
| 06-16 02:57 | Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $5.80 |
| 06-15 00:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.55 |
| 06-15 00:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.70 |
| 06-15 00:32 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? | BUY | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 06-11 01:20 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.59 | $8.85 |
| 06-06 15:49 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? | BUY | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 06-06 15:48 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 06-04 00:25 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 06-02 03:46 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 05-15 01:42 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 05-12 02:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |