0x71f2b4222c9f97994ff30a4d0d9d64978b79d99e
0x71f2b4222c9f97994ff30a4d0d9d64978b79d99e
- Realised P&L
- $-12.65
- Volume
- $162.59
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $3.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.605 | $1.83 | +$0.77 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.160 | $1.52 | −$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.99at 0.341Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$2.65at 0.430US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$1.80at 0.400Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.65at 0.550Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.49at 0.582Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:10 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.349999934 | $1.06 |
| 08-27 17:47 | Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-27 09:46 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 23:57 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.549999868 | $1.25 |
| 08-17 08:20 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 00:19 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 05:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 08:29 | Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-09 23:58 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-09 15:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-09 07:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 23:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-07 01:38 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 17:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 21:34 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |