0x9a
0x71c2f6b0d989453028b7cb0afd61858f3ee34115
- Realised P&L
- $897.39
- Volume
- $307.4k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $60.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.852 | 0.842 | $33.66 | −$0.42 |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $13.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.117 | $11.75 | −$8.25 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.007 | $0.70 | −$6.07 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.006 | $0.65 | −$4.35 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.004 | $0.35 | −$9.65 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$641.58at 0.890Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$572.77at 0.521Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
- +$356.95at 0.603Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
- +$104.05at 0.876Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$81.71at 0.416Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 09:52 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 08-11 09:52 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.0677 | $6.77 |
| 08-11 09:39 | Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.09 | $18.00 |
| 08-11 09:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |
| 06-15 06:58 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.27 | $218.70 |
| 06-15 06:56 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.28 | $71.40 |
| 06-15 06:55 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.28 | $324.83 |
| 04-06 13:27 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.9358045946 | $34.62 |
| 04-06 13:27 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.917 | $45.85 |
| 04-06 13:26 | Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.21 | $262.68 |
| 03-31 13:11 | Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $54.60 |
| 02-24 06:35 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 02-24 06:34 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.962 | $962.00 |
| 02-24 06:34 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 02-24 06:34 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.963 | $963.00 |