vincentfire
0x7144f8fa344af262f86b058ba164029c6e946624
- Realised P&L
- $1.69
- Volume
- $1.10M
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$468.81at 0.007Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$242.11at 0.023Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- +$135.13at 0.360US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
- +$89.78at 0.011Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
- +$64.58at 0.004Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-16 15:23 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.92 |
| 09-16 14:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 09-16 14:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 09-15 22:31 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-15 22:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $11.50 |
| 09-15 22:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $46.00 |
| 09-14 03:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.392 | $164.64 |
| 09-14 02:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.402 | $8.20 |
| 09-12 14:15 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 09-12 13:21 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $2.48 |
| 09-12 08:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 07:03 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $6.86 |
| 09-11 14:02 | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $3.24 |
| 09-11 13:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |