kartofelman
0x712178a31e3658f3d5394d825ef73f359a150abc
- Realised P&L
- $-820.77
- Volume
- $27.5k
- Markets traded
- 680
- Open portfolio
- $99.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded680
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.84at 0.690Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 0%-3%?
- +$0.80at 0.180Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$0.70at 0.830Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 20%-25%?
- +$0.30at 0.007Ethos FDV above $12M one day after launch?
- +$0.30at 0.121Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 11:40 | Will CeeDee Lamb have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.68 | $13.60 |
| 10-12 10:40 | Will Drake Maye have 424.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 10-12 10:27 | Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.16 |
| 10-12 10:18 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October? | SELL | 0.65 | $4.59 |
| 10-12 10:18 | Will Petr Mrazek record 4+ shutouts? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.06 |
| 10-12 10:09 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-12 09:58 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election by 9%-12%? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 10-12 09:43 | Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next? | SELL | 0.293 | $5.86 |
| 10-12 09:33 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $4.86 |
| 10-12 09:31 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-05 House election by 3%-6%? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.60 |
| 10-12 09:03 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-06 House election by 35%-40%? | SELL | 0.654 | $13.08 |
| 10-12 06:24 | Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 10-12 06:07 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 10-12 04:48 | Will Lazio qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.834 | $12.48 |
| 10-12 04:23 | Will the Florida Panthers record 100+ points? | SELL | 0.5 | $5.00 |