high-beta-trading-only
0x703d06b0f6f6c893876d43cd9b0b7977b9c380f6
- Realised P&L
- $-149.01
- Volume
- $40.1k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $25.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? · No | 0.700 | 0.865 | $6.18 | +$1.18 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.882 | $5.66 | +$0.66 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · No | 0.610 | 0.505 | $4.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.475 | $4.02 | −$0.97 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.746 | 0.947 | $2.89 | +$0.61 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.580 | 0.935 | $1.78 | +$0.67 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.170 | $0.58 | −$1.09 |
| Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.877 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31? · No | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.40at 0.445Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?
- +$82.81at 0.640Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
- +$46.84at 0.507Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$36.76at 0.610Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
- +$30.89at 0.612Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 20:33 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.903 | $9.03 |
| 09-26 20:49 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $6.90 |
| 09-16 22:19 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | BUY | 0.47 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 15:28 | Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30? | BUY | 0.831 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 03:42 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $5.00 |
| 09-13 21:02 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.51 |
| 09-11 21:03 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 08:23 | Will Russia enter Moskovka by September 30? | SELL | 0.8 | $6.46 |
| 09-09 02:52 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $5.00 |
| 09-06 03:49 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 18:48 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $5.00 |
| 08-25 03:01 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $5.00 |
| 08-24 08:06 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.68 | $5.00 |
| 08-24 07:22 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? | BUY | 0.69 | $5.00 |
| 08-23 17:26 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $5.00 |