0x7018D36359Aa3bFB96BE56BeeDEeaa7cDa4E6057-1750341929310
0x7018d36359aa3bfb96be56beedeeaa7cda4e6057
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $97.3k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $11.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.075 | $5.91 | −$4.09 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.005 | $5.50 | −$64.50 |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes | 0.529 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$350.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.587 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.242 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · No | 0.353 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$180.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.220US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$961.38at 0.341US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$494.48at 0.548US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$244.68at 0.290US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$219.91at 0.352Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 13:37 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0642714172 | $10.00 |
| 07-26 13:35 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2699999904 | $20.00 |
| 07-26 13:34 | Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? | BUY | 0.1269518852 | $10.00 |
| 07-26 13:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $56.51 |
| 07-26 13:27 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0599999992 | $67.81 |
| 07-26 13:26 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $6.33 |
| 07-26 13:26 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $5.88 |
| 07-26 13:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.006 | $1.30 |
| 07-26 13:23 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher? | SELL | 0.0430597015 | $7.21 |
| 07-26 13:22 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | SELL | 0.04 | $2.86 |
| 07-26 13:22 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.71 |
| 07-26 13:22 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.66 | $33.00 |
| 07-26 10:28 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher? | BUY | 0.0597014925 | $10.00 |
| 07-26 10:27 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 07-26 10:27 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |