skunked
0x70077b0c3c240a7f183b542e1d6088391cabee64
- Realised P&L
- $-220.60
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 615
- Open portfolio
- $161.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded615
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.725 | $50.41 | −$5.21 |
| Will Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.893 | 0.877 | $43.87 | −$0.77 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.750 | 0.615 | $36.00 | −$7.90 |
| Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.210 | 0.195 | $9.75 | −$0.75 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.275 | $9.04 | +$1.15 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.115 | $8.42 | −$7.68 |
| Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.605 | $1.81 | −$0.17 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · No | 0.140 | 0.145 | $1.69 | +$0.06 |
| Will Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.122 | $0.45 | +$0.15 |
| Will Joao Azevêdo win the most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election? · No | 0.077 | 0.032 | $0.03 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.24at 0.147Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $580?
- +$28.49at 0.080Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21?
- +$26.52at 0.070Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $570?
- +$18.97at 0.050Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?
- +$15.48at 0.140Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $370?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 06:11 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April? | SELL | 0.04 | $2.08 |
| 04-09 14:07 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 6 above $370? | SELL | 0.38 | $2.66 |
| 04-07 15:01 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 6 above $380? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.43 |
| 04-07 14:11 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of April 6 above $149? | SELL | 0.3 | $2.40 |
| 04-07 13:49 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of April 6 above $152? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.53 |
| 04-06 15:11 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? | BUY | 0.0509999905 | $4.57 |
| 04-06 15:07 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on April 6? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.98 |
| 04-06 15:05 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on April 6? | BUY | 0.8099999836 | $4.95 |
| 04-06 15:03 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.59 |
| 04-06 15:03 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 6 above $290? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.95 |
| 04-06 15:03 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 6 above $295? | BUY | 0.64 | $4.95 |
| 04-03 09:25 | XRP Up or Down - April 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 04-03 06:54 | Solana Up or Down - April 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | SELL | 0.47 | $4.23 |
| 04-03 06:34 | Solana Up or Down - April 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | SELL | 0.63 | $5.67 |
| 04-03 04:50 | XRP Up or Down - April 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $4.41 |