celestat3123
0x6ff0a3f6a71b03ff03a4b690ca1439ba03e07760
- Realised P&L
- $-74.2k
- Volume
- $588.0k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $20.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.038 | $20.5k | −$73.0k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.005 | $55.23 | −$948.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$199.15at 0.345Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
- +$176.75at 0.672Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
- +$112.37at 0.061Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
- +$4.74at 0.981Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
- +$-14.15at 0.468Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 12:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.0k |
| 05-14 12:30 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.114 | $1.0k |
| 05-06 03:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.0506506806 | $80.34 |
| 05-06 03:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $10.3k |
| 05-05 06:01 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.0599999999 | $656.38 |
| 05-05 05:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4599999978 | $61.36 |
| 05-05 05:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4294006647 | $188.64 |
| 05-05 05:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6559627974 | $353.70 |
| 05-05 05:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $250.00 |
| 05-05 05:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET | BUY | 0.5227107617 | $192.83 |
| 05-05 05:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | BUY | 0.5158289405 | $250.00 |
| 05-05 05:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $300.94 |
| 05-05 05:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | BUY | 0.3289670999 | $100.00 |
| 05-04 18:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4499999884 | $13.61 |
| 05-04 18:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.29 | $14.50 |