marsresting
0x6f6bc4f8a73430f59213d8812173c85e75111ab6
- Realised P&L
- $14.7k
- Volume
- $2.86M
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $14.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.980 | $6.5k | +$98.02 |
| Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.837 | 0.949 | $4.7k | +$553.26 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? · No | 0.949 | 0.969 | $969.74 | +$20.20 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.700 | 0.825 | $825.00 | +$125.00 |
| Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.934 | 0.972 | $579.76 | +$22.81 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.919 | 0.980 | $489.75 | +$30.25 |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.937 | $325.68 | +$30.24 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.919 | 0.928 | $154.13 | +$1.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.5kat 0.972Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
- +$6.6kat 0.995MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.845Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?
- +$1.7kat 0.996Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$925.48at 0.877Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 14:35 | Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9437997731 | $282.82 |
| 10-08 00:40 | Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? | SELL | 0.947 | $80.65 |
| 10-08 00:40 | Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027? | SELL | 0.75 | $48.75 |
| 09-10 02:20 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.351 | $351.00 |
| 08-19 20:40 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.85 | $63.10 |
| 08-19 20:40 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 08-19 20:40 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.919 | $124.98 |
| 08-19 20:39 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.964 | $191.06 |
| 08-16 16:01 | Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9232181935 | $258.19 |
| 07-19 21:57 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.94 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 19:38 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5924999541 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 12:11 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs | BUY | 0.6 | $30.61 |
| 07-10 12:02 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in July? | BUY | 0.9897474568 | $495.22 |
| 07-08 10:09 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.55 | $825.00 |
| 07-08 04:36 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |