marsresting
0x6f6bc4f8a73430f59213d8812173c85e75111ab6
- Realised P&L
- $28.5k
- Volume
- $2.82M
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $9.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.834 | 0.915 | $4.4k | +$390.19 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $1.5 before 2027? · No | 0.949 | 0.952 | $952.22 | +$2.69 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.700 | 0.825 | $825.00 | +$125.00 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.304 | 0.670 | $602.99 | +$329.00 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · No | 0.912 | 0.988 | $493.75 | +$37.75 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · No | 0.930 | 0.965 | $482.50 | +$17.50 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.919 | 0.965 | $482.25 | +$22.75 |
| Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No | 0.860 | 0.826 | $413.00 | −$17.00 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.367 | 0.369 | $184.50 | +$1.00 |
| Will $ANSEM reach $2 before 2027? · No | 0.971 | 0.957 | $81.50 | −$1.18 |
| Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027? · Yes | 0.784 | 0.743 | $48.30 | −$2.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.5kat 0.972Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
- +$6.6kat 0.995MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.840Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?
- +$1.7kat 0.996Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$930.01at 0.876Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 21:57 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.94 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 19:38 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5924999541 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 12:11 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs | BUY | 0.6 | $30.61 |
| 07-10 12:02 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in July? | BUY | 0.9897474568 | $495.22 |
| 07-08 10:09 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.55 | $825.00 |
| 07-08 04:36 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 07-08 04:35 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $998.00 |
| 07-08 04:33 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | BUY | 0.9988885083 | $361.60 |
| 07-08 04:31 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.2k |
| 07-07 00:52 | New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | SELL | 0.9801600064 | $490.06 |
| 07-06 12:29 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $225.00 |
| 07-06 01:40 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $398.34 |
| 07-06 01:40 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.904 | $37.27 |
| 07-05 20:23 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.976 | $488.35 |
| 07-05 17:22 | New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.5 | $253.81 |