bqb
0x6f52c7a19b37d9d9deb65546ccd7edc1dd92046f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $122.1k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.458 | 0.370 | $591.36 | −$140.51 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.244 | $469.98 | +$369.98 |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.00 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$353.09 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.394 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.286Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4?
- +$701.95at 0.299Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$252.72at 0.043Biden drops out by July 4?
- +$94.65at 0.034Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$94.12at 0.680Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 08:13 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.4579142856 | $731.87 |
| 08-16 08:12 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0519168219 | $100.00 |
| 07-20 21:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.1773606567 | $880.29 |
| 07-17 18:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.2000066458 | $992.69 |
| 01-04 13:11 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $153.90 |
| 10-30 20:48 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.3449999997 | $800.46 |
| 10-22 16:57 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.3509999994 | $200.00 |
| 10-17 11:55 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.3879999999 | $905.00 |
| 10-07 17:10 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.4639999999 | $1000.00 |
| 08-29 10:48 | Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10? | BUY | 0.0481192059 | $50.00 |
| 08-16 12:52 | Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? | SELL | 0.12 | $36.67 |
| 08-12 18:13 | Will Trump say "Trans" during Elon interview? | BUY | 0.3799999985 | $150.00 |
| 08-08 20:29 | Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-05 14:16 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | BUY | 0.679999999 | $200.00 |
| 08-05 14:16 | Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? | BUY | 0.3272727257 | $100.00 |