PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Ersicolus

0x6f36ce54f16757df7f4dd693433dfe8932f089ca

Realised P&L
$7.7k
Volume
$870.5k
Markets traded
431
Open portfolio
$53.32

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded431
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31? · Yes0.0550.103$19.52+$9.20
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? · Yes0.0760.065$16.25−$2.67
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? · Yes0.0040.004$13.50+$1.09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? · Yes0.0290.038$4.05+$0.94
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No0.1650.000$0.00−$148.31
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00−$26.38
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0080.000$0.00−$2.40
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? · No0.0020.000$0.00−$2.35
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? · No0.0080.000$0.00−$4.22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? · No0.0380.000$0.00−$11.30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No0.4540.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00−$6.41
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · No0.0760.000$0.00−$49.55
Will RMD Gaming Win Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 2 · Yes0.0060.000$0.00−$0.29
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00−$3.84

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-24 15:05Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?BUY0.086152$12.92
10-24 15:01Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?SELL0.003$1.50
10-23 23:04Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?SELL0.003$0.19
10-01 04:04Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?BUY0.002$4.00
09-30 17:38Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?SELL0.0038082701$2.68
09-30 17:37Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?SELL0.0058160082$5.82
09-25 18:50Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?SELL0.007$0.51
09-25 08:36Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.0010359625$5.37
09-25 01:57Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.994$993.99
09-23 03:10Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.007$4.89
09-22 04:45Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.06$0.61
09-22 04:44Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?SELL0.9739141$194.78
09-22 04:44Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.0724619233$13.76
09-22 04:42Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?SELL0.974$124.67
09-22 03:12Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?SELL0.9738544444$70.12