Ersicolus
0x6f36ce54f16757df7f4dd693433dfe8932f089ca
- Realised P&L
- $7.7k
- Volume
- $870.5k
- Markets traded
- 431
- Open portfolio
- $53.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded431
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.213Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
- +$1.3kat 0.022Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$948.94at 0.432Will There be 10+ Knife Kills at CS2 EWC 2026?
- +$723.04at 0.177Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?
- +$677.62at 0.223Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 15:05 | Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? | BUY | 0.086152 | $12.92 |
| 10-24 15:01 | Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.50 |
| 10-23 23:04 | Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.19 |
| 10-01 04:04 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.00 |
| 09-30 17:38 | Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.0038082701 | $2.68 |
| 09-30 17:37 | Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? | SELL | 0.0058160082 | $5.82 |
| 09-25 18:50 | Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.51 |
| 09-25 08:36 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.0010359625 | $5.37 |
| 09-25 01:57 | Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.994 | $993.99 |
| 09-23 03:10 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.007 | $4.89 |
| 09-22 04:45 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.61 |
| 09-22 04:44 | Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | SELL | 0.9739141 | $194.78 |
| 09-22 04:44 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.0724619233 | $13.76 |
| 09-22 04:42 | Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | SELL | 0.974 | $124.67 |
| 09-22 03:12 | Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | SELL | 0.9738544444 | $70.12 |