0x6ecd72a047fcdbc377110d255c473da7a0d4bd42
- Realised P&L
- $-9.29
- Volume
- $155.57
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $4.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.770 | 0.942 | $2.38 | +$0.43 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.505 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.095 | $0.29 | −$1.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.69at 0.306Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.89at 0.370US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.86at 0.470Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.84at 0.520Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:15 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 19:54 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 23:27 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999457 | $1.21 |
| 08-26 08:12 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 18:22 | Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-18 20:21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 09:17 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 13:10 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 05:09 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |
| 08-09 07:59 | Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 23:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 15:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 19:45 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2079999309 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 11:44 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 11:42 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |