goosemonkey
0x6e6e2969d12c576a369cab0de815e3ee866c1750
- Realised P&L
- $-644.81
- Volume
- $21.5k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.960 | $485.76 | +$25.30 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.726 | 0.825 | $279.68 | +$33.46 |
| Will Waymo launch in New York, NY by December 31 2026? · No | 0.963 | 0.947 | $238.75 | −$4.04 |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · No | 0.882 | 0.949 | $234.18 | +$16.44 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.017 | $94.44 | +$44.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$157.25at 0.722Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$36.98at 0.451Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- +$31.42at 0.921Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
- +$30.29at 0.924Claude 4 released in May?
- +$28.23at 0.952Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 22:13 | Will Waymo launch in New York, NY by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.9610803943 | $189.12 |
| 09-09 22:55 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7263126844 | $246.22 |
| 09-08 20:49 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $460.46 |
| 09-08 20:49 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0902393947 | $283.39 |
| 09-08 05:46 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $148.11 |
| 09-08 05:45 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $52.78 |
| 09-08 05:45 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $58.45 |
| 06-30 03:34 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | SELL | 0.91 | $8.44 |
| 06-30 03:34 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | SELL | 0.8593381395 | $73.90 |
| 06-30 03:33 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? | SELL | 0.3311278635 | $113.33 |
| 06-30 03:33 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.73 | $180.82 |
| 06-28 18:03 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? | BUY | 0.39 | $55.48 |
| 06-28 17:59 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | BUY | 0.8662906977 | $74.50 |
| 06-28 17:57 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $7.80 |
| 06-28 17:46 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.73 | $34.82 |